Roll Up The Rim to Win Expectation Value
Canada loves Tim Hortons’ “Roll Up the Rim to Win” contest. I was curious to know what the expectation value of the contest is, given all the prizes, so I thought I would compile my results here. I used the In-Store Contest Rules available from the Tim Horton’s website.
35 Toyota Venza’s ($32,000) + 100 Cash Prizes ($10,000) + 1,000 Toshiba Laptops ($700) + 25,000 Tim Cards ($100) + Winning Rim Tabs = $38,019,185
Total number of cups: 281,686,000
Overall expectation value: $38,019,185 / 281,686,000 = $0.134970091
There is more data available in the Contest Rules, but strictly speaking I’m not interested in what my expectation value is for winning the Toyota, nor do I want to complicate things by recalculating my odds based on what province I’m in. So you can expect to win 13-ish cents on each cup you buy.
Happy rolling!